Tropical Cyclone Alfred could drive up insurance premiums in southern Queensland, experts warn

(Sydney: Monday 3 March 2025) As Tropical Cyclone Alfred approaches landfall in southern Queensland, physical climate risk analysis company Climate Valuation (part of the Climate Risk Group) is raising concerns that homeowners in affected areas may face more costs than just repairing damage to property from flood, wind and coastal inundation. Insurance premiums could rise as well. 

Of additional concern to homeowners and communities is that this trend is expected to worsen as climate change impacts the frequency, severity and patterns of cyclonic activity. 

Modelling by the Climate Risk Group highlights the risk of cyclone and hurricane activity moving towards the poles, affecting homes and communities where existing infrastructure and buildings are not designed for such weather extremes.

“In 2023 our modelling identified this exact region of southern Queensland and northern New South Wales as being at growing risk from tropical cyclones, as warming sea temperatures drive cyclones further south. Insurers are also starting to understand these trends. It is only to be expected that insurance premiums will rise in areas where the risk of damage from cyclones increases,” says Dr Karl Mallon, CEO, The Climate Risk Group. 

The map below was released in 2023 by XDI (Cross Dependency Initiative - part of the Climate Risk Group, identifying the regions in Australia most vulnerable to the poleward shift of tropical cyclones, driven by climate change.

The Bureau of Meteorology has classified Alfred as a Category 2 system, set to cross the coast on Thursday. Strong winds, coastal erosion, and heavy rainfall are anticipated, posing a significant threat to homes, businesses, and infrastructure. While cyclones in this region are not unprecedented, such events remain rare.

“We’re fortunate that Cyclone Alfred is only a Category 2 storm. However our modelling suggests that higher intensity cyclones are increasingly likely for these areas and should they hit, the damage will be devastating. Homes in these regions simply aren’t built to withstand high intensity storms like these,” said Dr Mallon.

“These results are a wake-up call for governments to start understanding this risk, change building codes and invest in adaptation measures to protect people and property,” he says.

About The Climate Risk Group

The Climate Risk Group, comprising XDI (Cross Dependency Initiative) and Climate Valuation, provides market-leading climate risk analysis to governments, banks, corporations and homeowners to identify risk to property and infrastructure from climate change extreme weather.

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